By The News Update — Updated November 4, 2025
Bitcoin falls below $104,000 after a sharp run-up to its all-time high in October, sparking a wave of profit-taking and liquidations across exchanges. On Tuesday, November 4, 2025, BTC tumbled through intraday supports as macroeconomic signals and fading rate-cut expectations rattled risk assets. The sell-off erased recent gains, pushing market capitalisation down and sending trading volumes sharply higher.
What happened: numbers and market context
Bitcoin falls below $104,000 following a more than 4% intraday decline. Earlier in the session BTC sank to a low near $103,049, compared with $107,670 at roughly the same time on Monday. Over the past 24 hours, market data showed that Bitcoin’s market cap slipped to roughly $2.06 trillion while trading volumes surged by nearly 60%, signalling active profit-taking by holders who booked gains after the October highs.
That October high — BTC’s lifetime peak above $126,000 on October 7 — set the stage for a classic topping behaviour: extended rallies often invite partial or full de-risking from early buyers. When macro cues turn less favourable, profit-taking accelerates, producing sharp pullbacks even when the long-term narrative remains intact.
Why Bitcoin falls below $104,000 — key drivers
- Profit-taking. Many investors realised profits after the recent rally. With BTC up more than 50% over the past year, short-term traders chose to monetise gains.
- Macroeconomic backdrop. Shifting US rate-cut expectations kept real rates higher for longer, increasing pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
- Liquidations. Rapid declines triggered leveraged positions to unwind, magnifying the sell-off and pushing price below short-term supports.
- Sentiment and positioning. Market positioning was heavily long after the rally; even a modest negative surprise can flip sentiment quickly when positioning is crowded.
Technical picture: supports, resistances and key levels
From a technical standpoint, the immediate support to watch is the $100,000 psychological level. Market participants reacted strongly once price approaches this threshold, and a decisive break below $100K could widen the correction towards $95,000 or lower.
On the upside, failed attempts to reclaim the $108,000–$110,000 area signalled exhausted momentum in the short term. If buyers reassert control, watch for an initial recovery above $110K as a necessary first step toward reclaiming the October highs.
Market data and on-chain signals
24-hour metrics during the pullback showed a sharp rise in exchange inflows and elevated trading volumes — classic markers of distribution. Meanwhile, long-term on-chain indicators stayed relatively healthy: network activity, fees and institutional inflows remained supportive of a broader multi-month uptrend. In short, the pullback contained elements of technical correction rather than systemic collapse.
Expert view — Sumit Gupta (CoinDCX) explained
“The recent drop in Bitcoin is largely a product of macro pressures and profit-taking,” said Sumit Gupta, Co-founder of CoinDCX. He cautioned that the market’s immediate behaviour is driven by sentiment and positioning. “With U.S. rate-cut expectations pushed further out, cryptos, specifically Bitcoin, have faced renewed selling.”
Gupta added that if BTC holds above key supports and macro headlines stabilise, price may enter a consolidation phase before attempting a recovery. Conversely, a clear break under $100,000 would open the door for deeper corrections.
Can the crypto recover its losses in the short term?
Answering whether Bitcoin can recover depends on two vectors: market structure and macro catalysts. If the market absorbs recent selling without capitulation — meaning the $100,000 support holds and liquidation cascades end — then short-term consolidation followed by a measured recovery is plausible.
However, if macroeconomic surprises (stronger US data or a hawkish Fed remark) push interest-rate expectations higher, the recovery becomes more conditional and slower.
Short-term scenarios (7–30 days)
- Bearish cascade: A decisive breach of $100,000 triggers further liquidations, driving BTC toward $95,000 or lower. This scenario is fuelled by poor macro news and leveraged long unwinds.
- Range-bound consolidation: BTC trades between $100,000 and $110,000 for several weeks, digesting gains and rebuilding order flow. This is the most probable scenario if no fresh catalysts emerge.
- Rapid re-acceleration: Positive macro cues (renewed rate-cut hopes) or institutional buy flows push BTC back above $110,000 and re-ignite the rally. This requires supportive macro signals and renewed buyer conviction.
What traders and investors should watch
- Macro releases: US jobs, CPI and Fed commentary remain the prime movers for risk assets.
- On-chain flows: Exchange inflows/outflows, whale accumulation and spot ETF demand can tilt supply/demand balance.
- Liquidation heatmap: Clusters of leveraged longs under key levels increase the odds of sharp swings.
- Derivatives skew: Options and futures open interest reveal positioning and potential gamma-driven moves.
Analyst POV — data-driven short-term playbook
Analyst take: Given the structural backdrop, my data-driven view is cautious but constructive. Bitcoin falls below $104,000 because intra-month profit-taking collided with precarious positioning. The logical approach for active traders is to:
- Scale risk: Add exposure incrementally if BTC stabilises above $100K with decreasing exchange inflows and rising spot demand.
- Use spreads: Consider short-dated spreads or protective collars to manage tail risk while keeping upside exposure.
- Monitor liquidity: Avoid initiating large positions during high liquidation velocity; wait for normalised spreads and reduced funding rate spikes.
For investors with a longer horizon, the pullback could represent a buying opportunity if conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term macro narrative (store-of-value, inflation hedge, institutional adoption) remains intact. Dollar-cost averaging into weakness reduces timing risk while preserving participation.
Editorial POV — market psychology and what this means
Editorial perspective: When Bitcoin falls below $104,000 it doesn’t always signal a changing long-term thesis; often it highlights the market’s sensitivity to near-term headlines. Crypto markets are still maturing: they oscillate between bouts of exuberance and quick corrections. This volatility is part of the asset class DNA.
Investors should distinguish between structural regime change and transient retracements. The October highs were extraordinary, and short-term profit-taking is healthy. The key test is whether the ecosystem fundamentals — institutional inflows, regulated product uptake and on-chain health — remain supportive. If they do, recoveries after sharp pullbacks are common and often rapid once the selling pressure subsides.
Actionable strategies for different market participants
For swing traders
- Trade ranges: sell near resistance ($108–111K), buy near support ($100K) with tight stops.
- Use options to exploit volatility — sell premium carefully once IV normalises.
For short-term investors
- Scale in with staggered buy orders below $105K, increase if $100K holds.
- Keep position sizes limited relative to portfolio risk tolerance.
For long-term holders
- Ignore noise; maintain strategic allocations and dollar-cost average into weakness.
- Rebalance only if core thesis changes (e.g., regulatory shock to primary markets).
Risk management checklist
- Set stop-losses and position limits — never risk more than a predefined % of capital on a single trade.
- Prefer spot accumulation over leveraged exposure in uncertain macro windows.
- Hedge significant positions with inverse ETFs or options if downside protection is necessary.
Where to track live updates and order flow
For intraday updates and market metrics, reliable sources include market aggregators and exchange dashboards. For this story, see coverage and data on Crypto and global aggregators like CoinMarketCap for live volume and price metrics.
Conclusion — odds of a short-term recovery
Bitcoin falls below $104,000 was an expected technical correction after an outsized rally. Short-term recovery odds hinge on whether $100,000 holds and whether macro sentiment stabilises. If $100K acts as a reliable floor, consolidation and a measured rebound later in November are likely. If that floor fails decisively, deeper corrections toward $95,000 become more probable.
Traders should remain nimble: prioritise risk management, watch macro newsflow closely and avoid overleveraging into volatile conditions. Long-term investors can view the dip as a potential accumulation window — provided they remain aligned with Bitcoin’s broader adoption thesis.
